基于层次赋权的特大危岩体爆破削方风险评价云模型Cloud Model of Risk Assessment for Blasting Cutting Oversize Dangerous Rock Mass by A Hierarchical Weighting Technology
郑臻,祝文化,黄建,夏元友
摘要(Abstract):
针对特大型危岩体爆破削方治理过程中的风险因素具有随机性和不确定性,基于云模型理论,提出了组合赋权的危岩体云模型风险评价方法。从危岩体地质条件、环境因素、爆破削方施工及施工管理四个方面进行危险源辨识,建立特大型危岩体爆破削方治理风险控制安全评价指标体系,应用层次分析法对评价指标进行组合赋权处理。结合正向正态云模型和指标权重,计算评价对象的确定度及风险等级。应用该方法对甑子岩特大危岩体爆破削方治理过程进行了风险评价。该工程根据风险分析进行的危险源施工控制,能够满足施工安全。
关键词(KeyWords): 特大型危岩体;爆破削方;风险评价;赋权;云模型
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金面上项目(51374163)
作者(Author): 郑臻,祝文化,黄建,夏元友
参考文献(References):
- [1] 乐琪浪,王洪德,高幼龙,等.三峡库区望霞危岩体孕灾地质环境条件分析[J].地球学报,2015,36(2):204-212.LE Qi-lang,WANG Hong-de,GAO You-long,et al.An analysis of disaster-pregnant geological environment conditions of the wangxia unstable rock mass in the three gorges reservoir[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2015,36(2):204-212.(in Chinese)
- [2] 殷跃平,康宏达,何思为,等.乌江鸡冠岭危岩体整治爆破工程方案[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994,5(S1):324-331.YIN Yue-ping,KANG Hong-da,HE Si-wei,et al.Explosive engineering of jiguanling dangerous rockmass prevention of the wujiang river[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control.1994,5(S1):324-331.(in Chinese)
- [3] 程康.黄石市板岩山危岩体成因机理分析与防治对策研究[J].工程地质学报,2000,8(2):202-205.CHENG Kang.Analysis of genetic mechanism of dangerous rockmass on banyanshan mountain in huangshi city and study of controlling measures[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2000,8(2):202-205.(in Chinese)
- [4] 夏元友,朱瑞赓.黄石市板岩山危岩体防治方案决策分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000,19(4):498-500.XIA Yuan-you,ZHU Rui-geng.Analysis on control decision-making of unstable rockmass in banyan mountain huangshi city[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2000,19(4):498-500.(in Chinese)
- [5] 董家兴,徐光黎,李志鹏,等.卜寺沟水电站环境边坡危险源分类及危险度评价[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(5):760-767.DONG Jia-xing,XU Guang-li,LI Zhi-peng,et al.Classification and risk rating assessment of hazard sources in surrounding slope of busigou hydropower project[J].Journal of Engineering Geology.2012,20(5):760-767.(in Chinese)
- [6] 王俊.基于事故树分析露天煤矿爆破飞石危险源辨识[J].煤矿安全,2012,43(6):180-183.WANG JUN.Identify the hazard of blasting flying stones in open-pit mine based on fault tree analysis[J].Safety in Coal Mines,2012,43(6):180-183.(in Chinese)
- [7] 陆瑜,唐旭,邹飞.基于云模型的爆破振动影响度评估研究[J].爆破,2018,35(3):166-171.LU Yu,TANG Xu,ZOU Fei.Evaluation on impact of blasting vibration based on cloud model[J].Blasting,2018,35(3):166-171.(in Chinese)
- [8] 王景春,张法.基于熵权二维云模型的深基坑施工风险评价[J].安全与环境学报,2018,18(3):849-853.WANG Jing-chun,ZHANG Fa.Risk assessment of the deep foundation pit based on the entropy weight and 2-dimensional cloud[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(3):849-853.(in Chinese)
- [9] 李德毅,刘常昱,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[J].软件学报,2004,15(11):1583-1594.LI De-yi,LIU Chang-yu,DU Yi.Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[J].Journal of Software,2004,15(11):1583-1594.(in Chinese)
- [10] 黄龙华.控制爆破技术在地质灾害治理中的应用[J].爆破,2010,27(2):41-56.HUANG Long-hua.Application of controlled blasting technology in governacing geological hazards[J].Blasting,2010,27(2):41-56.(in Chinese)
- [11] 高文学,万元林,刘运通,等.高边坡危岩体爆破及其控制技术[J].爆破,2005,22(2):1-16.GAO Wen-xue,WAN Yuan-lin,LIU Yun-tong,et al.Blasting and controlling techique of high and steep rock slope[J].Blasting,2005,22(2):1-16.(in Chinese)
- [12] 李梅,朱念,夏元友,等.基于落石计算的危岩拦石土坝设计方法[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(2):120-123.LI Mei,ZHU Nian,XIA Yuan-you,et al.Design methods of rockfall barrier soil dams for unstable rocks using rockfall[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology.(Nature Science),2011,39(2):120-123.(in Chinese)
- [13] 苗高建,周传波,张志华,等.三峡库区望霞危岩体削方爆破振动测试分析[J].爆破,2012,29(3):131-134.MIAO Gao-jiana,ZHOU Chuan-bo,ZHANG Zhi-hua,et al.Vibration measurement and analysis of wangxia dangerous rock mass blasting in three gorges reservoir[J].Blasting,2012,29(3):131-134.(in Chinese)
- [14] 郭金玉,张忠彬,孙庆云.层次分析法的研究与应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(5):148-153.GUO Jin-yu,ZHANG Zhong-bin,SUN Qing-yun.Study and applications of analytic hierarchyprocess[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(5):148-153.(in Chinese)
- [15] 谢全敏,夏元友.岩体边坡治理决策的模糊层次分析方法研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(7):1117-1120.XIE Quan-min,XIA Yuan-you.Fuzzy hierarchy analysis on decision making of rockmass slope treatment based on entropy weight[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2003,22(7):1117-1120.(in Chinese)
- [16] 黎良辉,杨斌,魏博文,等.基于改进层次分析法的大坝性态安全诊断云模型[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):209-214.LI Liang-hui,YANG Bin,WEI Bo-wen,et al.Cloud model of dam behavior safety diagnosis based on improved analytic hierarchy process[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2018,29(1):209-214.(in Chinese)
- [17] 张明广,蒋军成.基于层次分析法的重大危险源模糊综合评价[J].南京工业大学学报,2006,28(2):31-34.ZHANG Ming-guang,JIANG Jun-cheng.Application of analytical hierarchy process in hazard degree assessment of major hazard installations[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Technology,2006,28(2):31-34.(in Chinese)
- [18] 杨文东,杨栋,谢全敏.基于云模型的边坡风险评估方法及其应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,46(4):30-34.YANG Wen-dong,YANG Dong,XIE Quan-min.Study on slope risk assessment method based on cloud model and its application[J].Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2018,46(4):30-34.(in Chinese)
- [19] 雷荣,陆文清,王爱民,等.甑子岩特大型危岩体治理开挖控制爆破[J].爆破,2018,35(1):90-95.LEI Rong,LU Wen-qing,WANG Ai-min,et al.Controlled explosive excavation of zengziyan oversize dangerous rock mass[J].Blasting,2018,35(1):90-95.(in Chinese)